Ten Key Senate Races Define the Midterm Map
Voters in states from Alaska to Texas are deciding the balance of power in the U.S. Senate on Election Day.
By Nikolai Morales ·
The United States is voting on Tuesday to decide which party controls the Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot, including 33 regular elections and two special elections. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45 seats plus two independents who caucus with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, whereas Republicans can afford to lose only two seats to maintain their majority. Ballotpedia identifies thirteen races as battlegrounds that will likely determine the chamber's composition.
In North Carolina, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. This is an open seat because incumbent Thom Tillis retired after clashing with President Trump. The state voted for Trump by a margin of 3.3 points in the 2024 presidential election. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff runs against Republican Representative Mike Collins. Georgia is a lean Democratic race according to several ratings, despite voting for Trump by a narrow margin of 2.2 points in 2024.
Ohio presents a special election to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Republican Senator Jon Husted defends the seat against Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown. The state voted for Trump by 11.2 points in 2024. In Michigan, which voted for Trump by a slim 1.4 point margin, Republican former Representative Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. On Sunday, El-Sayed's former primary opponent Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers. The AP notes that the state is currently rated as a toss-up to lean Democratic.
Texas features a high-profile contest where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton runs against Democrat James Talarico. President Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. The state voted for Trump by 13.6 points in 2024. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic former State Senate President Troy Jackson. The AP states that economic strain and tariffs have made the state competitive. Maine is rated as a toss-up on all four major race ratings, despite voting for Kamala Harris by 6.9 points in 2024.
New Hampshire is an open seat following the retirement of Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Democratic Representative Chris Pappas challenges former Republican Senator John E. Sununu for the position. The state voted for Harris by 2.8 points in 2024. In Minnesota, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya are among four candidates competing for the seat of retiring Senator Tina Smith. The state is not listed as a top-tier battleground in the AP's key matchups but remains a critical contest for Senate control.
Kansas has become central to the fight for Senate control despite being a reliably Republican state. The race is rated as a toss-up to lean Republican. The state voted for Trump by 16.2 points in 2024. In Alaska, the race is rated as a toss-up to lean Democratic. The Trump administration has filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result in the state. The state voted for Trump by 13.1 points in the 2024 presidential election.
The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on Trump's second term, with voters struggling with high prices and expressing anger over an unpopular war with Iran. AP-NORC polling shows that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in ten adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most respondents blame the president for high prices. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states.
Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. According to an AP analysis of AdImpact data, 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million in spending where he won by 10 points or more.
RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout, adding that if they turn out their voters, they win. DCCC Chair Representative Suzan DelBene said the American people are angry and want change. Voter Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said he has been following Trump the whole time and thinks he is doing an awesome job. In Raleigh, North Carolina, voter James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian, noted that he is paying more for taxes, healthcare, and everything else.
A federal judge on Monday temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan it says would prevent noncitizen voting. Critics argue the risk is disenfranchising eligible voters and infringing on states' authority over elections. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines so mail ballots are counted on time. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker and has outlined a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight.
