Lula Claims Fourth Term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on October 26, 2026. The Workers' Party incumbent secured 51.79% of the vote in the final count. His rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, received 48.21% of the total. The margin of victory was approximately 4.3 million votes among Brazil's 159 million registered voters.

The outcome reversed the trajectory of the first round held earlier in the month. Flávio Bolsonaro initially led with 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%. Lula trailed with 53.8 million votes, or 45.16%. Since Brazilian democracy resumed in 1985, a first-round runner-up had never won the second ballot. Polls tightened sharply in the weeks between votes, leaving the candidates separated by only fractions of a percentage point.

Lula attributed his victory to a shift in voter behavior and digital strategy. He described the result as a defeat for denialism. The first round saw a record abstention rate of 21%, a trend more common among lower-income voters who typically support Lula. Progressive groups responded by focusing heavily on voter mobilization.

A digital campaign played a central role in the turnaround. Millions of voters joined a WhatsApp channel known as Lula's army, which sent daily instructions on how to make supportive content go viral. Lula, who recently purchased his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach overtook that of the Bolsonaro campaign for the first time.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges. The magazine Piauí published a claim that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. The campaign had previously drawn strength from the growth of evangelical Christianity and voter anger over urban crime. A dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign, though the company called the allegations false and unfounded.

International relations influenced the race. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, a witch hunt. Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a defender against Trump's colonial designs. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy that balanced relations with the United States, China, and Russia. He declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election result has implications for environmental policy. Deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70% under Lula's current administration. His government has cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. However, Lula must now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians. These legislators are often hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede the election immediately after the results were declared. He cited the decision to extend voting by two hours, a measure requested by both sides for different reasons. He stated that it was impossible to concede the election result. Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips noted that the environment only appeared in the final presidential debate. He suggested that Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.