Voters decide Netanyahu's fate in tight race

Israelis cast ballots Tuesday to determine the next prime minister.

The race is viewed as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader. Polling indicates a tight contest between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief of staff.

Voters choose political parties rather than individual candidates. No single party has ever secured a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Consequently, leaders must form alliances to build a governing coalition. This process can take weeks or months after polls close late Tuesday.

The conflict with Hamas anchors the election. On Oct. 7, 2023, militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 251 others. The Israel Democracy Institute reports that 68% of Jewish Israelis cite the events of Oct. 7 as a central factor in their voting choice.

Candidates are emphasizing security failures and domestic burdens over the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Netanyahu has resisted a formal commission of inquiry. His opponents criticize his handling of the security breakdown and his coalition's support for exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men.

Military service remains a flashpoint. A quarter of Jewish voters polled by the Israel Democracy Institute ranked conscription as a key decision factor. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews in Gaza, pledged to end de facto exemptions. Netanyahu's governing coalitions have traditionally relied on ultra-Orthodox parties that demand these exemptions.

More than three dozen parties are in the race, with about a dozen expected to win seats. Netanyahu, 77, leads the Likud party. Eisenkot, 66, leads the centrist Yashar party. Other contenders include Naftali Bennett, 54, who runs a joint ticket with Yair Lapid, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, 50, the national security minister.

International dynamics weigh on the campaign. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week. The United States and Israel launched a joint operation against Iran on Feb. 28, and regional talks continue. An international arrest warrant exists for Netanyahu, and rights groups have accused Israel of genocide, a claim the government denies. The next government will need to address these diplomatic challenges.