Israeli Election: Likud Fractures Over Turnout Risks

Likud members are divided on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of winning the election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. While some party insiders express confidence in victory, others worry that a massive turnout among opponents could shift the results.

The party's internal polling, led by Shlomo Filber, has become a point of contention. One Likud source described the uncertainty by saying, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." This internal split contrasts with external surveys conducted days before the vote, which found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided how to cast their ballots.

A primary source of anxiety for Likud officials is the activity of nonprofit organizations directing funds toward voter mobilization in the rival camp. Party sources described these efforts as a wide-ranging campaign that operated throughout the election period without direct party funding. Activities included social media pushes, physical signage, field events, and transportation services specifically for Arab voters. Officials also noted efforts to bring Israelis living abroad back to the country to vote.

One source labeled these efforts "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that the groups provide a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules. Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee, claiming it focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while paying insufficient attention to the nonprofits' activities. The sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or confirm that the activity violated the law.

Likud is preparing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day, despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations. The party is focusing on preventing right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. In an attempt to consolidate the right, Likud held talks with Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, who leads the People of Israel party. Winter is a former commander of the Givati Brigade. The negotiations involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who issued a statement supporting Winter after the talks failed to end his candidacy.

The party is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, officials raised the possibility of legislation that would allow the party to name a deputy minister.