Likud divided on election odds

Likud members disagree on the party's chances just before the national vote.

The split centers on the effectiveness of rival organizations in driving voter turnout. One Likud source described the internal mood as mixed. He said, “We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so.” The source referred to Shlomo Filber, who runs the party's internal polls, with a blunt assessment: “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.”

Party officials point to a wide network of nonprofits that they say are spending large sums to boost support for candidates opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. These groups ran social media campaigns, placed signs, and hosted field events throughout the campaign. They also arranged transportation for Arab voters and helped Israelis living abroad return to cast ballots. A Likud source called this dynamic “the nonprofits affair on steroids.” The party argued that these organizations gave rival slates a support network outside standard party financing rules. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused on video limits and public resource use while ignoring the nonprofits' activity. However, party sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts or for claims that the activity broke the law.

Likud is preparing a large ground operation for Election Day. The team will work to keep right-wing votes from going to smaller parties. Efforts to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to drop out of the race failed. Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander and head of the People of Israel party, stayed in the race even after talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan. Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter. Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already dropped out of the race. During talks with Likud, they discussed legislation that would allow the party to name a deputy minister.

Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27. This date allows the current government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.