Brazil vote looms as 1.3 point gap keeps Bolsonaro ahead of Lula

Flavio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 1.3 percentage points in the CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday, the last day of campaigning before the Sunday runoff. The survey places the senator at 46.3 percent and the incumbent president at 45 percent. The margin of error for the study is 2.2 percentage points, keeping the race statistically competitive.

This result follows a previous reading from the same pollster one week earlier, which showed Bolsonaro at 46.8 percent and Lula at 45.9 percent. In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent. The final tally will determine if Brazil maintains its current left-wing leadership or joins a wider regional trend toward right-wing governance.

Lula, who is 80 years old, addressed a crowd at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. Wearing a red hat and standing on a campaign truck, he waved a Brazilian flag while speaking to hundreds of supporters. He framed the choice as a decision between national pride and foreign influence, referencing his rival's relationship with US President Donald Trump.

"The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said. He is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office. His final debate with Bolsonaro took place on Friday, where both candidates traded accusations regarding economic difficulties but adopted a calmer tone than in previous encounters.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, held his final rally in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. The event featured hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. Ebert Dorigo, one of the riders, told AFP that the Workers' Party had encouraged dependence on government welfare. He argued that Brazil requires a change in direction because welfare policies have hindered individual achievement.

"The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said. He stated that the country is divided because some citizens do not grasp that improvement comes through hard work. Bolsonaro has pledged to cut government spending and add hundreds of thousands of prison places to address crime. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the voting decision as difficult. She told AFP that voters are forced to choose between the worst and the lesser evil. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option," Viana said.