Young and Lower-Income Voters Drive Democratic Gains in 2026 Midterms
The AP Voter Poll indicates that voters under 30 and those with household incomes below $50,000 shifted sharply toward Democrats, reversing trends seen in the 2024 presidential election.
By Nikolai Morales ·
The 2026 midterm elections marked a distinct reversal in voting patterns for several key demographic groups, according to the AP Voter Poll.
Voters under the age of 30 supported Democratic candidates for the U.S. House at a rate of roughly 7 in 10, compared to about 3 in 10 who voted for the Republican candidate. This group was nearly evenly split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 AP VoteCast survey. First-time midterm voters, who skew younger, also largely favored Democratic nominees.
Despite the sharp shift, young voters constituted only about 1 in 10 of the national electorate, limiting their total impact on the final tally. However, their dissatisfaction with national leadership was pronounced. Approximately half of voters under 30 described themselves as angry about the direction of the country, a higher share than the one-third of voters aged 65 and older who reported the same sentiment. Additionally, about 6 in 10 young voters cited opposition to Trump as a primary reason for their House vote.
Hispanic voters also moved toward the Democratic Party. Roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally chose the Democratic House candidate, up from the roughly 4 in 10 who supported Trump in 2024. This trend was evident in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico secured support from about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters in that contest, while Paxton won only about 3 in 10.
Black men, in particular, shifted back toward Democrats after supporting Trump in 2024. Only about 1 in 10 Black men voted for the Republican House candidate this year, down from roughly one-quarter who backed Trump two years prior. About 9 in 10 Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, a slight increase from the roughly 8 in 10 who voted for Harris in 2024. In Georgia, about 9 in 10 Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms, the state's first Black female governor.
Moderate voters, many of whom expressed concern that Congress was not providing sufficient checks on the presidency, also increased their support for Democrats. About two-thirds of moderates voted for the Democratic House candidate, up from approximately 6 in 10 who supported Harris. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 7 in 10 moderate voters, a substantial increase from the half who supported Harris in 2024. Similar gains occurred in Iowa and North Carolina.
Economic factors also influenced voter behavior. More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic House candidate, whereas this group was evenly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 6 in 10 lower-income voters stated that the cost of living was a major factor in their decision, compared to about half of voters earning $50,000 or more. The AP Voter Poll surveyed more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states between October 19 and November 3, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
