Young and Hispanic voters swing back left
New poll data shows Democratic candidates regained support among five key demographics that favored Trump in 2024, driven by economic hardship and opposition to the presidency.
By Lorenzo Patterson ·
The 2026 midterm elections saw a sharp reversal in voting patterns among five demographic groups that previously shifted toward the Republican Party.
According to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states, Democratic candidates recovered lost ground with young voters, Hispanic voters, Black voters, moderates, and low-income households.
Voters under the age of 30 moved decisively toward the Democrats. In 2024, this group was roughly split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This year, approximately 70 percent of voters under 30 supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, compared to about 30 percent who backed the Republican.
This shift was driven by dissatisfaction with current leadership. About half of young voters described themselves as angry about the state of the country, a rate higher than the one-third of voters aged 65 and older who felt the same. Additionally, 60 percent of voters under 30 cited opposition to Trump as a primary reason for their House vote.
Hispanic voters also moved away from the Republican Party. Roughly 60 percent of Hispanic voters nationally supported the Democratic House candidate, while only about 33 percent backed the Republican. This compares to the 40 percent of Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024.
The shift was critical in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. In that contest, 60 percent of Hispanic voters backed Talarico, while only 30 percent supported Paxton. In Florida, where Republican Ashley Moody won reelection, less than half of Hispanic voters supported her, marking a decline from her 2024 base.
Black voters, particularly men, also shifted toward Democrats. Moderates, who frequently expressed that Congress was not checking presidential power, provided key support for Democratic Senate victories in states including Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Economic factors played a role in these shifts. Most voters reported that inflation caused at least moderate hardship for their families over the past year. Consequently, voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 moved away from Republicans compared to their 2024 preferences. Despite these shifts, voters under 30 represented only about 10 percent of the total 2026 electorate, limiting their overall impact on national results.
