Israelis Turn Out in Record Numbers as Exit Polls Show Split Parliament

Israeli voters turned out in record numbers for Tuesday's national election, producing a fragmented parliament that leaves the country without a clear governing majority. The Central Elections Committee reported a 77.7% turnout as polls closed, marking the highest participation since 1999 and a seven percentage point increase over the 2022 vote.

Exit polls from major Israeli television stations indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party received the largest single share of the vote. However, the data suggested that the broader coalition supporting the incumbent lost ground relative to the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.

According to the exit polls, Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win approximately 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot's bloc is also projected to secure around 51 seats. Neither group reaches the 61 seats required to form a government. The remaining 19 seats are projected to go to Arab-led parties.

Israel's political system requires parties to form coalitions because no single party has ever won a parliamentary majority on its own. With both major blocs well below the threshold for a majority, the next steps depend on whether disparate groups can agree to work together. This process could take weeks of negotiation or lead to new elections if a stable government cannot be formed.

The role of Arab-led parties is central to the current uncertainty. Netanyahu stated in his election night speech that he refuses to build a government relying on these parties. Eisenkot has expressed willingness to work with them under specific conditions, though this stance may alienate some of his coalition partners. If the exit polls hold, these parties will hold the balance of power in selecting the next prime minister.

Campaigns focused heavily on the security failures of the October 7, 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people and resulted in 251 abductions. Netanyahu blamed the army for those failures and rejected a formal investigation. His opponents demanded a commission of inquiry to hold him accountable for the events that occurred during his tenure.

The election also featured a sharp debate over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews in combat in Gaza, vowed to end these de facto exemptions. The exit polls showed a decline in support for ultra-Orthodox parties, suggesting voters are unhappy with the current system of exemptions after three years of war.

Official results are not expected until later this week and may differ from the exit polls, which are subject to survey error. As of early Wednesday morning, with less than a third of ballots counted, Likud had received 22.02% of the vote and Eisenkot's Yashar party had received 15.46%.