Zelenskyy's Drone Strategy Grounds Moscow's Four Main Hubs for Up to Nine Hours Daily

Ukrainian drone strikes have grounded flights at four major Moscow airports for up to nine hours a day this month. The disruption affects Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo. Independent outlet Agentstvo reported that operations were suspended almost every day in October. This follows a stated goal by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cut off airspace around Moscow. In early September, he warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. Ukraine sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the next day.

The closures stem from a safety procedure used by Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya. The protocol is known as the 'carpet' system. It closes airspace immediately if an aircraft violates Russian space, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, stated that every drone poses a military threat. He compared the situation to disruptions in Saudi airspace by Yemen's Houthis. Laneckij noted that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev said Ukraine can easily disrupt air traffic around Moscow. He explained that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads. Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic in October that these efforts are just getting started. Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against the drones. He said Russia would have deployed more troops if it had them.

Experts warn about risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the protocol. This raises the danger of incidents like the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. That plane was hit by a Russian air-defense missile, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's protocol since then. He noted that low-flying drones shot with machine guns pose low risk to aircraft. Missiles, however, could deviate toward nearby airliners due to mass-production defects.

Drones do not need explosives to cause harm. A collision with an airplane can be serious. Matvejev said a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023. Drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil were hit in September.

Foreign airlines face three factors when deciding whether to fly to Russia. Laneckij identified the military threat, demand, and insurance costs as key variables. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could raise premiums. This would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia's aviation market has shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said whether airlines stay depends on the price they pay for the danger faced.