Votel: Fresh Iran Strikes May Delay War but Leave Goals Unclear

Retired Army General Joseph Votel said on October 23 that a new round of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could weaken the country's military capabilities but is unlikely to end the war. Votel, who served as head of U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, told NPR's Leila Fadel that the current strategy lacks a clear finish line. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit and that Iran has demonstrated an ability to rebuild its infrastructure.

Votel argued that strikes can buy time and punish Tehran, but they have not altered the government's strategic calculations. He observed that the Iranian leadership has become more hard-line and willing to execute bold counterattacks. For Votel, the primary requirement is a precise definition of the end state. He stated that this goal should focus on the uranium enrichment issue and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Once that objective is set, Votel said, all elements of national power should be directed toward it. He emphasized that military force is only one component, and that economic, diplomatic, and information pressures are equally necessary. He pointed to the financial front as the area showing the most visible progress. The blockade and recent sanctions are increasing pressure, he said, citing reports that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil.

Votel acknowledged that U.S. aims have been difficult to interpret publicly. He said much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil and commerce to flow more freely. He noted that this would help lower gas and diesel prices in the United States. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. While Iran uses proxies like the Houthis to create regional instability, Votel described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

On military readiness, Votel stated that American offensive power in the region is substantial. The ability to strike is not in question, he said. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces and regional partners. Votel assessed that while offensive capability is strong, the defense sector may be facing limitations.

Votel advised that bringing Iran to the negotiating table requires a clear statement of objectives and a coordinated use of military, economic, and diplomatic tools. He stressed the need for patience to see that approach through. He currently chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.