Polls Leave Israeli Coalition Math to Arab Voters

Polls indicate that the 120-seat Israeli Knesset will enter next week's election without a clear winner. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition is projected to lose its majority. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also forecast to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government.

The deciding factor lies with Palestinian citizens of Israel. Current projections place the number of seats held by Arab parties between 12 and 15. These seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties that includes Ta'al. This community represents about 20% of the Israeli population.

Ahmad Tibi, head of Ta'al, stated that high turnout is a critical tool for removing the current government. He has served in the Knesset for more than two decades. Tibi noted that the opposition is determined to bring the current government down. Most of the Jewish opposition has historically ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu's allies have campaigned to make such an alliance politically toxic, using slogans like 'Bibi or Tibi.'

Israel has a limited history of Palestinian ministers. Raleb Majadele served as sports minister for two years. Issawi Frej held the regional coordination portfolio for just over a year. Despite the resistance, promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Bennett is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu also opened coalition talks with Abbas in the past.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its stance once the results are in. He described the situation as pure mathematics. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote. He believes that the simple math of the seats will force the opposition's hand.

Forming an alliance remains difficult for Palestinian politicians. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution. Most strongly oppose a Palestinian state and back the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described the choice as one between bad and worse. He sees the alternative as Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side and the opposition on the other.

Fear is the primary motive driving voters to the polls. The death and destruction in Gaza have deepened worries. Militant violence and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank add to the anxiety. Rising racism and discrimination inside Israel have also increased concern over another four years of far-right ministers. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the biggest motivation is fear. He stated that voters understand the danger if the current leadership returns.

Turnout has been depressed in the past by distrust of the system. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race. This was due to an article about the October 7 Hamas-led attacks. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians abstain on principle. Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat said she refuses to legitimize a system that treats her rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate. He noted that this mandate would speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation. Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election falls two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre. Border police killed 49 men, women, and children in that event.