Pennsylvania Midterms: Four House Races Could Decide Congressional Control

Election Day is Tuesday.

A new Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll indicates that four U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania are competitive enough to swing control of the chamber. Democrats currently lead in the 1st and 7th Districts. The 10th District is tied. The 8th District remains a close contest. This outcome would place the narrow Republican majority in the House in jeopardy.

In the 1st District, Democrat Bob Harvie holds a small lead over incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick, a five-term member of Congress, has spent the final days courting labor unions. At a Teamsters rally in Northeast Philadelphia, he told supporters he would always have their backs. He described them as the salt of the earth and the friends he wants. The union support marks a shift for a Republican representing a Philadelphia suburb, a region that has trended Democratic in recent years.

Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, focused his final push on affordability and election security. He held a town hall at Ben Franklin Middle School in Levittown after a debate was canceled. Voters pressed him on his campaign visibility. One resident asked why he was not matching Fitzpatrick’s presence with more lawn banners. Harvie assured the crowd that he is a fighter and has never lost an election he has run in. He is scheduled to campaign with Gov. Josh Shapiro in Doylestown this Saturday. Shapiro leads Fitzpatrick by double digits in the district.

The 7th District in the Lehigh Valley features a race between union leader Bob Brooks and freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Brooks leads in polls and fundraising. The race has been marked by aggressive attack ads and legal threats. The candidates traded cease-and-desist letters over recent advertising. Mackenzie’s campaign accused Brooks of using the legal threat to justify canceling a planned debate. Brooks said he wanted to avoid giving Mackenzie a stage to pour his venom. The district has seen $31.8 million in ad spending, making it the second most expensive congressional race in the state.

In the 10th District based in Harrisburg, Rep. Scott Perry continues to air an ad claiming Democrat Janelle Stelson exposed herself to a neighbor’s grandchild. Stelson’s campaign calls the claim false and is considering legal action. Perry said the ad shows a pattern of poor judgment. Stelson’s campaign manager said Central Pennsylvania is ready to send Perry packing after 14 years of opposition to local interests.

The 8th District in Scranton is the most Trump-friendly of the four regions. Democrats are focusing on corruption to challenge the incumbent. President Donald Trump has not announced plans to campaign in Pennsylvania this cycle. If he visits the 1st District, Fitzpatrick said he would not rally beside him. The president’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent at least $100,000 on Fitzpatrick’s behalf. Fitzpatrick has not received an official endorsement from the president. He votes with Trump roughly 70% of the time, the least among House Republicans. He has also received millions of dollars from Republican leadership PACs. These factors complicate his independent brand as the final stretch of the midterms begins.

House Speaker Mike Johnson will visit at least one Pennsylvania candidate Wednesday. He is trying to secure his leadership position. The four districts represent a critical test for the national parties. The outcome will determine if Republicans maintain their majority or if Democrats seize control of the House.