Eisenkot's 58-Seat Plan Pits Opposition Leader Against Rivals

58 seats. That is the minimum number of Knesset members Gadi Eisenkot says his bloc needs to form the next Israeli government. The former defense minister and Yisrael Beytenu leader wants to lead the change-seeking camp and serve as the prime ministerial candidate. He rejects any arrangement that places him under Benjamin Netanyahu, including a rotation deal. His strategy relies on a minority cabinet that wins a confidence vote and then attempts to broaden its parliamentary support.

Most recent polls show the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition. However, the Zionist parties seeking change currently fall short of the 61 seats typically needed to govern. Netanyahu and his allies also lack a clear majority in many surveys, though some polls show the right-wing bloc holding enough seats. The final outcome could hinge on the electoral threshold and small shifts in voting patterns.

The proposal faces immediate pushback within the opposition. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, two key figures in the bloc, oppose the 58-seat floor. Liberman categorically rejects a minority government, even a transitional one. He insists on a Zionist majority from the start and states that another election is preferable to a government that fails his conditions. Bennett, who heads the Beyachad list with Yair Lapid, also demands a Zionist government and refuses to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties.

Legal experts note that swearing in a government requires a majority in a confidence vote, not necessarily 61 affirmative votes. Abstentions could therefore allow a minority cabinet to take office. This distinction matters during the formation process but does not allow the bloc to remove a sitting Netanyahu government by simple majority, which requires a constructive vote of no confidence backed by 61 MKs.

Eisenkot has not ruled out support from the Ra'am party, though no formula exists for that cooperation. Yair Golan, chairman of the Democrats, has also not ruled out working with Ra'am. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but left their disagreement unresolved. Leadership rivalry continues, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as the natural candidate based on his prior experience as prime minister.

The bloc is also nearing agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. The aim is to give Netanyahu's opponents control of the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in a new Knesset's term in a public vote. The bloc could draw on Arab party MKs to assemble a majority behind an agreed candidate. Names raised include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No consensus candidate has been announced.

Liberman estimated this week that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. The bloc also intends to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on the prime minister's tenure, and repeal of certain judicial changes. Liberman seeks a bar on people facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. Party teams have begun coordinating, but no binding agreement exists on the details or the order of these legislative goals.

Obstacles remain for the opposition camp. Not every member backs every judicial change, and a new speaker would not automatically deliver a legislative majority. Laws aimed at Netanyahu could face constitutional hurdles. The memory of the Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its promised laws, continues to influence the current negotiations.