Polls Show Student List May Capture 40 Percent in Serbia Election

Serbia enters a parliamentary election that political scientists describe as the first truly competitive contest since 2012. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has held power for 14 years, but a student-led opposition movement now challenges its dominance. Voters will decide Sunday which side controls the government in what analysts call an unpredictable outcome.

The student movement, known as the Student List, began protesting after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024. That disaster killed 16 people and became a symbol of institutional failure. The group framed the election as a chance to demand accountability and confront corruption, attempting to bridge ideological and foreign policy divides that have historically shaped Serbian politics.

Polling data suggests the Student List could win more than 40 percent of the vote. Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, told Deutsche Welle that this is the first election since Aleksandar Vucic came to power that has an uncertain outcome. He noted that the movement has generated substantial support and hope among the electorate. The SNS, however, argues that a change of government risks chaos and instability.

The ruling party held a closing rally in Belgrade, portraying the vote as a battle for Serbia's future and sovereignty. Former President Vucic accused opponents of serving foreign interests and attacking the party with billions of euros. He claimed that rivals tried to destroy the country on foreign orders. The SNS message focused on stability, continuity, and prosperity, contrasting their record with the potential disorder of a new administration.

The campaign was marked by a high volume of recorded incidents. The independent monitoring group CRTA documented 116 cases of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included physical confrontations, attacks on campaigners, and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning.

Television airtime data revealed a significant imbalance in media coverage. Almost three-quarters of airtime given to political players on national television went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage of the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources indicated that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, and in some cases holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Thousands of supporters gathered in Belgrade for the Student List's final rally on Thursday evening. Many walked for days from across the country to the capital. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had crossed Serbia and learned they could count on the people. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, said it smells like freedom. The event concluded with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

Authorities have warned for weeks that students are preparing street violence, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services. Several people were arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic stated that a decisive win for either camp would be the best outcome, but polls point to a narrow margin. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, with the movement vowing to defend every vote.

The European Union is watching the process closely. An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations on improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process, noting that Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.