NFL Week 10 Last-Minute Picks: Chiefs, Steelers Set to Benefit From Scheduling Quirk

Quarterbacks dominate the conversation again in Week 10, with three passers set to make their first career starts on Sunday: rookies Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck, plus second-year quarterback Kyle McCord. Kirk Cousins is also slated to start in his return to Minnesota after being acquired at the trade deadline, while Jacoby Brissett takes over in Baltimore after the Ravens dealt for him to help offset the loss of Lamar Jackson. The deadline's ripple effects give bettors one more variable to weigh, and Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are all on bye.

The Sunday night matchup sends the Pittsburgh Steelers to face the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Cincinnati has won four straight while averaging more than 35 points per game, and Joe Burrow has piled up 18 total touchdowns with a 132.0 passer rating over that stretch. The opposition, however, has been soft: at Miami, at Baltimore without Jackson, and home games against Tennessee and Atlanta. Pittsburgh, which beat the Bengals in Week 3, brings a defense tied for the fifth-lowest yards per play (5.0), tied for the fourth-fewest points allowed per game (18.0) and tied for the eighth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.3). Cincinnati has allowed a league-worst 5.0 yards per rush attempt, setting up Jaylen Warren for another big day, and the Bengals are coming back from an international game in Madrid while the Steelers rested on their bye. Projected score: Steelers 27, Bengals 24. The pick: Steelers +3.5.

In the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints at 1 p.m. ET on Fox, and first place is at stake even though both clubs sit at 3-5. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is just 1-5 against New Orleans in his career, but he completed 71.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns in the loss to Denver. The Saints secondary is allowing 7.3 yards per attempt, tied for the fifth-highest in the league, and its 99.5 passer rating allowed ranks seventh-highest. New Orleans is also 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread at home this season. Projected score: Panthers 24, Saints 21. The pick: Panthers +2.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET on CBS in another game shaped by the schedule, since Atlanta played in Madrid last Sunday. Kansas City cruised past the Jets 35-12 last week, though Patrick Mahomes gave fans a scare with an elbow injury that is not serious enough to keep him out. Mahomes has five touchdowns and no interceptions over his past two games, but he is averaging an NFL-low 5.6 air yards per attempt. Help arrived at the deadline in wideout Josh Downs, acquired from the Colts, and he faces a Falcons secondary that was lit up by the Bengals and just traded star safety Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville. Atlanta is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in its last four against the AFC. Projected score: Chiefs 26, Falcons 20. The pick: Chiefs -3.

The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Tennessee Titans at 1 p.m. ET on Fox in a matchup of deadline buyers and sellers. Jacksonville added Bates, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to bolster its defense, while Tennessee traded away standout safety Amani Hooker and, a couple of weeks earlier, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. Trevor Lawrence enters with a 111.7 passer rating, second among quarterbacks with at least eight starts behind only Burrow. Jacksonville's defense allows 15.1 points per game, second-best in the league, has allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight road games, and gives up 3.7 yards per carry and 89.3 rushing yards per game, the latter ranking fifth-lowest. The Jaguars are 13-3 against the spread over their last 16 games with a +16.3 points per game differential. Projected score: Jaguars 34, Titans 16. The pick: Jaguars -10.5.

The Seattle Seahawks visit the Las Vegas Raiders at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS, where Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft out of Indiana, makes his first career start after the Raiders traded Cousins to Minnesota. He draws a Seattle defense allowing a league-low 244.2 total yards per game and 18.0 points per game, tied for fourth-fewest. The Raiders have allowed 30-plus points in six straight games, tied for the longest such streak within a season all-time, and they surrender an NFL-high 5.0 yards per carry, a potential opening for Zach Charbonnet after his 16-carry, 77-yard outing last week. Sam Darnold is sidelined with a quad injury and backup Drew Lock is expected to play through an oblique issue. No. 1 overall quarterbacks are 1-15-1 straight up and 3-14 against the spread in their first career starts since 2003. Projected score: Seahawks 30, Raiders 20. The pick: Seahawks -6.5.

Elsewhere on the slate, the Lions are the pick at -2.5 against the Patriots in Munich, with a projected 30-20 final. The Bills are favored by 8.5 at the Jets in a projected 33-21 win, while the Texans are projected to edge the Browns 23-20 with Cleveland taking the +4.5 cover. The Colts are the pick at -3.5 over the Dolphins, 27-17, and the Vikings are the choice at +2.5 against the Packers in a tight 24-23 projection. The Rams are projected to beat the Cardinals 27-17 and cover -9.5, and the 49ers are the pick at -4.5 over the Cowboys, 33-24. On Monday night, the Ravens are projected to top the Chargers 24-17, with Baltimore favored by 4.5. All lines are via DraftKings.