EU Commission projects Montenegro joins bloc in 2028

The European Commission released its annual enlargement report on Wednesday, projecting that Montenegro will become the European Union's 28th member in 2028. The executive body also indicated that Albania and Moldova are positioned to join in 2029. Ukraine is less likely to meet the necessary conditions for membership before the end of the decade.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that recent advancements allow the bloc to turn its promise of enlargement into reality. "Step by step, we are building a more complete, stronger Union," she said. The report marks a shift in the EU's approach to expansion after a period of stagnation.

The timeline for Montenegro reflects a specific trajectory for Western Balkan candidates. Albania is next in line, followed by Moldova. The Commission noted that Moldova could conclude its negotiations in early 2028, leading to a potential accession in 2029. This requires a unanimous endorsement from all existing EU member states once talks are finalized.

Ukraine faces a tighter schedule. The Commission urged Kyiv to accelerate reforms to close negotiations by the end of 2028. This target aligns with the country's stated goal, but the report suggests a full seat at the EU table is unlikely before 2030. Both Moldova and Ukraine have made progress on reforms despite external pressures and ongoing conflict.

Serbia represents a different path. The country’s membership talks could reset following the defeat of President Aleksandar Vucic in last month's election. A student-led opposition movement won the vote after two years of protests. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told lawmakers that the new government has an opportunity to strengthen democratic institutions.

Under Vucic, Serbia opened new policy chapters but saw democratic standards decline. In April, the Commission warned Serbia could lose approximately 1.5 billion euros in funding if it failed to halt this backsliding. The election of the new movement offers a chance for Serbia to advance more rapidly, though the formation of a stable government may take months.

Other candidates face distinct hurdles. Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia have no imminent prospect of joining due to government dysfunction and the need for constitutional changes. Kosovo has not yet been granted candidate status. Negotiations with Georgia and Turkey remain at a standstill due to democratic backsliding in both nations.

The Commission introduced a new roadmap for each country seeking to join the bloc. The last country to sign up was Croatia, 13 years ago. The EU's expansion had previously halted as members feared the organization was becoming too large to function efficiently. The new document signals a readiness to accommodate more members in the coming years.